Prediksi Perubahan Tutupan Lahan di Kabupaten Bogor Tahun 2026 Menggunakan Random Forest dengan Citra Satelit Sentinel-2 Terklasfikasi

Muhammad Syaifur Rohman; Afrinaldi Afrinaldi; Ahmad Syauqani; Maya Safira

doi:10.31292/jta.v8i2.413

Authors

Muhammad Syaifur Rohman Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia
Afrinaldi Afrinaldi Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia
Syauqani Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia
Maya Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31292/jta.v8i2.413

Keywords:

Tutupan Lahan, Random Forest, Urbanisasi, Sentinel-2, Perencanaan Lahan

Abstract

Bogor Regency has experienced significant land cover changes due to urbanization, population growth, and infrastructure expansion. This study predicts land cover changes in 2026 using a random forest model based on classified Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. The model was trained with data from 2017, 2020, and 2023 and evaluated using 2-fold time-series cross-validation, with an accuracy of 87.96%, Kappa 0.8131, and F1-Score 0.8752. The prediction results show an increase in built-up area from 748.02 km² (2017) to 953.89 km² (2023) and is estimated to reach 976.84 km² in 2026—especially in Pamijahan and Jonggol. On the other hand, agricultural areas decreased from 652.53 km² to 541.11 km² and are predicted to decrease again to 530.33 km², threatening local food security. Tree cover areas also decreased from 1,509.12 km² (2017) to 1,385.34 km² (2023) but are expected to increase to 1,413.42 km² in 2026 due to the reforestation program. These findings emphasize the importance of sustainable land planning to balance development with environmental conservation for the sustainability of the ecosystem and the welfare of the Bogor community.

Kabupaten Bogor mengalami perubahan tutupan lahan yang signifikan akibat urbanisasi, pertumbuhan penduduk, dan ekspansi infrastruktur. Penelitian ini memprediksi perubahan tutupan lahan tahun 2026 menggunakan model Random Forest berbasis citra satelit Sentinel-2 yang telah diklasifikasi. Model dilatih dengan data tahun 2017, 2020, dan 2023, serta dievaluasi menggunakan 2-fold time-series cross-validation, dengan akurasi 87,96%, Kappa 0,8131, dan F1-Score 0,8752. Hasil prediksi menunjukkan peningkatan area terbangun dari 748,02 km² (2017) menjadi 953,89 km² (2023), dan diperkirakan mencapai 976,84 km² pada 2026—terutama di Pamijahan dan Jonggol. Sebaliknya, area pertanian menurun dari 652,53 km² menjadi 541,11 km², dan diprediksi turun lagi menjadi 530,33 km², mengancam ketahanan pangan lokal. Area tutupan pohon juga menurun dari 1.509,12 km² (2017) ke 1.385,34 km² (2023), namun diperkirakan meningkat menjadi 1.413,42 km² pada 2026 karena program reboisasi. Temuan ini menegaskan pentingnya perencanaan lahan berkelanjutan untuk menyeimbangkan pembangunan dengan pelestarian lingkungan, demi keberlanjutan ekosistem dan kesejahteraan masyarakat Bogor.

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